THE COMPLEX SYSTEMS Interdisciplinary Scientific Journal April — June № 2 (8), 2020
A.V. Kholoptsev 1, 2 (Dr. Sci. (Geography), prof.),
S.A. Podporin 2 (Cand. Sci. (Engineering), associate professor),
N.K. Kononova3, 4 (Cand. Sci. (Geography)
1 Zubov N.N. Sevastopol Branch of State Oceanographic Institute, Sevastopol, Russia;[email protected]
2 Sevastopol State University, Sevastopol, Russia; [email protected]
3 Institute of Geography RAS, Moscow, Russia; [email protected]
4 Federal Research Center «Institute of Biology of the South Seas named after A.O. Kovalevsky RAS», Sevastopol, Russia
Abstract. The paper considers the features of the mutual influence caused by the ice cover of the Arctic waters and the meridional components of the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere of Earth, which are manifested in the modern period. The identification of such features is an urgent problem of climatology, meteorology, oceanography, as well as the maritime transport industry.
The subject of this research is the statistical relationship between interannual changes in a number of characteristics of the Arctic ice cover and components of the atmospheric circulation. The features of the impact of external factors on them are also investigated.
The paper checks the adequacy of the hypothesis put forward that the significant factors of the interannual variability of the characteristics belonging to Arctic air invasions that occur in the summer season in a number of regions of the Arctic include variations in the state of their ice cover caused by the combined effect of global warming and the decline of the average level of solar activity taking place in the current period.
To achieve this goal, there are considered the results of a retrospective analysis of changes in 1993–2019 concerning average daily values of the average thickness of the ice cover, its concentration, average temperature and salinity of the surface layer of the Arctic water areas, as well
as air temperatures and meridional components of wind speed in various layers of the troposphere. The specified information has been obtained from the GLORYS, V12, NCEP / NCAR, and ERA — Interim electronic databases. The method of correlation analysis and statistical goodness-of-fit tests were used to assess the adequacy of the hypothesis under consideration.
Using the example of the Arctic waters located in the European, Siberian, Far Eastern, and Pacific sectors of the Northern Hemisphere, the features of the mutual influence of changes in the state of their ice cover and meridional components of the atmospheric circulation in the summer season are revealed. The results obtained make it possible to confirm the adequacy of the concept on the significance of the impact on the ice cover of the Arctic waters of the southern cyclones entering high latitudes. The existence of a significant influence of the state of their ice cover on the characteristics of arctic air intrusions formed in the same sectors was also established.
It is shown that in the modern period, and in the coming decades of the twenty-first century changes in the state of the ice cover in the Arctic will be determined by competing factors of global warming and cooling factors caused by a decrease in the average level of solar activity. The latter will entail a decrease in the average intensity of insolation in the Arctic waters. The result of the confrontation of these factors is currently unpredictable since it depends on the average level to which solar activity will decrease at the next minimum of the Suess cycle, as well as on the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere reached by that time. It is not ruled out that ice conditions in the Northern Sea Route will become more difficult in the summer-autumn navigation period, which confirms the relevance and timeliness of the implementation of the Russian Icebreaker Fleet Development Program.
Keywords: Arctic, ice cover, invasions, Arctic air, southern cyclones, statistical relationships, solar activity, reanalysis.